The International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah), which summarizes the most prominent international events and monitors international regional movements, especially in Europe, and also includes Africa, the Middle East, Central and East Asia, the Caucasus region and other arenas, issued its eighth annual strategic report 2023-2024 AD.
In the section “Developments in the International Environment,” the report discussed a number of files, including “trends in the conflict in Ukraine and its repercussions on the West and Russia.” It includes the options of the parties to the conflict after the failure of the Ukrainian counterattack and the repercussions of NATO’s expansion on European stability, and the return of Germany…a reading of the first national security strategy, anticipating the trends of the conflict in Ukraine and its effects in terms of the cost of the war, and the geographical dimension regarding Ukraine’s security guarantees and its membership in NATO. This is a dilemma that will push towards a long-term war scenario.
Also among the files is “American-Chinese competition and the strategic balance in East Asia,” which dealt with the dimensions of American policies to encircle China, Chinese movements against American policies, and electronic chips.. The case. The most inflammatory region, and the repercussions of the polar competition on the strategic balance of East Asia, then the consequences of competition and balance. Strategy in East Asia during 2024 AD. In this regard, the report also expected a continuation of the trend of oscillation between escalation that is not conducive to war and calm, and the continuation of escalation, given the centrality of the outstanding issues, and further escalation among the countries of East Asia.
The topic reviewed the file of “global economic interactions and trends,” diagnosing the reality and paths of the global economy, and the accelerating economic trends on the international scene, and concluded by anticipating the possibility of a slowdown in the rise in global inflation rates, coinciding with the possibilities of easing interest rates in 2024 AD, and a slowdown in global economic growth, which is the scenario. What is closest to the scenario in the near term is the rising levels of government debt that will increase financial turmoil, as well as the easing of geopolitical tensions related to energy, metal and food prices, interest rates and government debt, and the Chinese real estate crisis that could bring calm in 2024 AD, and vice versa.
Finally, this topic analyzed the file of “security issues and competition in non-traditional fields,” which touched on the major powers and the dilemma of artificial intelligence, advanced chips and the new arms race, the impact of military technology on modern patterns of warfare, the increasing race to conquer space, and the dimensions of international competition over resources. In the Arctic, Europe and the problem of illegal immigration across the Mediterranean, then the future of international competition in non-traditional fields, which is built on the fact that whoever possesses the technological power and decisive resources in the future will take the helm of leadership. He expected that competition between Washington and Beijing on the one hand, and Washington and Moscow on the other hand, would increase.
The annual report for the year 2023 also addressed in its second axis “Strategic transformations in Saudi policy,” and the overall view of the conditions of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 2023, according to the report, indicates that this year it has reached the highest level of excellence in its internal and external performance.
The strategic transformations in Saudi policy for the year 2023 were addressed through four axes: modernization and good governance policies within the framework of Vision 2030, diversification of the economy in the post-oil phase, the armed forces, defense transformations and military industrialization, and finally Saudi Arabia, the peacemaker and catalyst for regional stability.
The report also discussed modernization policies and good governance within the framework of Vision 2030, the most important Saudi internal transformations and modernization paths in eight parts, the first of which dealt with the state’s policies in strengthening national identity, the second discussed the conditions of Saudi women and their empowerment policies, the third discussed educational policy and support for innovation and scientific research, and the fourth discussed identity. Urbanism and the preservation of national heritage, the fifth is for artificial intelligence and digital transformation policies, the sixth is the role of sports in enhancing the Kingdom’s soft power, the seventh is to analyze the implications of Saudi Arabia’s victory in organizing Expo 2030 AD, and the eighth focuses on the dimensions of the cultural and literary movement in Saudi Arabia.
The report addressed the diversification of the economy in the post-oil phase in the Kingdom through indicators, which were: the shift towards clean energy projects, economic diplomacy and investment encouragement, the food security strategy, logistics and enhancing the efficiency of global supply chains, the local manufacturing strategy and the emergence of Saudi Arabia as an attractive tourist destination.
With regard to the armed forces and military manufacturing, it was reported in late 2022 that the Kingdom is preparing to launch a national defense strategy during the year 2023, and according to a Saudi military expert, the Kingdom has a national defense strategy and a military strategy that are subject to updating within the development plan of the Ministry of Defense, and this includes The axis: “Armed Forces Development Programs 2023 AD, and Localization of Military Industries 2023 AD.”
The report also referred to Saudi Arabia as a “peacemaker and catalyst for regional stability” through the Saudi vision for the world and the Middle East, and Saudi Arabia played the role of mediator at the international level, relying on its global credibility and reliability, as well as through the Kingdom imposing itself globally with its rapid internal transformations and bold directions in its foreign policy. And its leaps in development indicators within a few years.
The third axis (developments in the Iranian situation) completes what the Rasanah Institute’s 2022 annual report began to anticipate. The 2023 report reviews the situation in all internal aspects and even Iran’s relationship with the Arab world and regional and international powers. The topic begins with internal developments in Iran, and discusses, through 4 brief and concise points, internal interactions in Iran and their repercussions on the ruling regime.
The axis begins with the performance of the government of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, the positions of the political movements before the elections, the extent of interaction with them, and how the Iranian regime mobilizes for the elections, which it considers to be a referendum on its popularity. Then the second point is discussed, the internal and external economic policy pursued by the regime and the extent of its impact on the living conditions and life of the Iranian citizen. In the third point, it reviews the positions of the internal forces in Iran regarding the return of relations with Saudi Arabia after the Beijing agreement. In the fourth point, it studies how the Iranian regime deals with the hijab crisis and its vision of its ruling legitimacy after the protests in 2022 AD and the killing of the Kurdish girl Mahsa Amini.
As for the second point of the axis, which concerns Iranian policy towards the Arab countries, the axis begins with the Iranian position on the international initiative in Yemen, and how the Iranian regime deals with it. In the second point, it refutes Iran’s relations with Iraq and the Iranian regime’s view of the Iraqi state, then explains the developments in Iranian influence in Syria, and in the fourth point, it explains the relations with Lebanon and what Iran specifically wants from Lebanon, especially in light of the Al-Aqsa Flood operation.
In the third point of the axis, which reviews Iran’s relations with regional and international powers, it begins by explaining the nature of relations between Iran and America and the extent of the complexity surrounding that relationship, especially in light of the developments taking place in Palestine after the Al-Aqsa Flood operation. In the second point, it explains the repercussions of European pressure on Iran and the extent of its success.
Then he explains how Iran dealt with Chinese, Russian, and Turkish penetration into the Caucasus region, and what methods it used to return again. In the fourth point, the report refutes Iran’s relationship with Pakistan after the departure of Imran Khan, and how this negatively affected the nature of relations between the two countries. In the fifth point, the report discussed what it considered a deterioration in relations between Iran and the Afghan Taliban, the border problems that arose between them, and how each party dealt with them separately. In the fifth and final point, the report explained Iran’s motives and moves towards the continent of Africa and South America, considering that this represents a political victory over America.
The head of the institute, Dr. Muhammad Al-Sulami, said that the institute is considered a leading intellectual institution in strategic analysis, studies, and policy development on Iranian, regional, and international affairs. It is also considered an independent, non-profit, private institute that helps improve policies, make decisions, and build public opinion through studies and analysis with objectivity and impartiality.
Dr. Al-Sulami stated that the annual report discusses, in its entirety, three main axes. The first is developments in the international environment, while the second axis deals with the strategic transformations in Saudi policy. The third axis reviews developments in the Iranian situation, and dividing the report into these axes confirms the Institute’s keenness for its report to be The annual conference is a pioneer in keeping pace with international and regional developments, whether on the international arena, where the scope of competition between major powers is expanding, or in regional environments, which are witnessing important movement and developments in the relations between their countries, whether cooperative or conflictual relations.
Dr. Al-Sulami stated that the report also addressed the economic file within the strategic transformations in the international arena, and an aspect of the issues and trends raised during the year 2030 AD, through two parts, the first diagnosing the reality of the global economy in 2023 AD, while the second part deals with an aspect of the rising economic trends on the international arena. The report also reviewed non-traditional security issues, most notably the dilemma of artificial intelligence, advanced chips as one of the areas of the new arms race, the impact of military technology on patterns of war, a return to the space race, the dimensions of international competition over resources in the Arctic, and finally the European response to migration. Illegality across the Mediterranean, as it is the most prominent non-traditional security issue on the international scene during the year 2023.
Dr. Al-Sulami added that the report reviewed the ideological intellectual issues related to political Islam and the struggle of fundamentalisms, the return of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, with Saudi Arabia leading the region in order to resolve the problems, the policy of action and collective action of the Arab Gulf states system, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Dr. Al-Salami noted that the report devoted an entire section to talking about the current Iranian developments internally, especially the exposure of the government of Ibrahim Raisi to severe criticism due to the suppression of freedoms and the weakness of the economy, as well as the parliamentary elections scheduled for March 2024, the weak economic performance of the Iranian Republic, the increasing rates of misery and the undermining of health and food security. The return of Iranian-Saudi relations, as well as the level of Iranian policy towards the countries of the Arab world, Iranian relations with Iraq, the balance of Iranian influence in Syria, its expansion in the Lebanese arena, Iran’s relationship with international and regional powers, and the impact of Iranian-European relations in 2023 AD by the hijab protests, as well as Iran’s relations. The countries of Central Asia, the Caucasus, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, and Iran’s relations with some Latin American countries.
